It's that time of year again. 26 countries are ready to compete for Eurovision glory in Copenhagen on Saturday night and it looks like the closest contest for years with several songs in with a real shot of victory.
In this blog I'll look at the bookies' odds (I've used William Hill) one day before the contest which can obviously change in the coming hours. Clicking a country name will take you to their preview video.
The current favourites are Sweden (5/2). Sanna Nielsen's Undo has gained momentum since Tuesday's semi final and a second win in three years is a real possibility for the Swedes. Scandinavian countries have been the dominant force in Eurovision since the mid 2000s with Norway and Finland also picking up victories in this time.
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| Sanna. (Per Kristiansen) |
After years in the doldrums at Eurovision it's pleasing to see the Netherlands riding high. The Common Linnets' gentle country track Calm After The Storm is already rising on charts across the continent before the majority of people have even heard it. If the comparatively tiny audiences the semi finals get is any indication, 3/1 may be a good price to take before the final tomorrow.
Armenia were the heavy favourites for a long time but have drifted out to 11/2. Aram MP3's dubstep ballad Not Alone is still not to be wrote off and could be the entry that rebuffs a resurgent Western Europe in this year's contest.
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| Can Armenia win? (Arnos Martirosyan) |
It's hard to remember a year when a United Kingdom entry had as much chance of winning as Molly does this year with Children of the Universe. Her modern, melodic track is already set to break into the UK Top 40 this weekend and is likely to climb further by the time next week's countdown is announced. She's 9/1 to bring Eurovision back to the UK for the first time since Katrina & The Waves won in 1997.
It's a surprise for me to see the hosts Denmark as low priced as 25/1. Basim's Cliché Love Song is one of the worst entries this year and says to me that the Danes really don't want to host two years in a row. Host nations tend to fare pretty well whatever they send however so maybe I shouldn't be so surprised.
Looking further down the odds, a song that has fallen further down the pack is Norway's Carl Espen with Silent Storm. Another former front runner, this has slipped to 33/1 which is a very good price. He put in a polished performance of the song while qualifying from last night's semi final and he may be a good each way bet for a top five place, as it's a song which really comes to life sung live.
Poland are back at Eurovision after two years away and their, shall we say, interesting staging of My Slowianie - We Are Slavic certainly got people talking. An unlikely winner though as there's not much to the song, and controversy doesn't always mean votes - see Finland's miserable near-bottom finish last year with Krista Siegfrieds' same-sex kiss. The Poles are a hefty 80/1 shot.
Messages of equality and tolerance have rarely been as fun as when Iceland (100/1) put them across. Punk-rock band Pollaponk - also primary school teachers - have been a breath of fresh air this year and No Prejudice is a good song to boot. They won't win, but I hope they get a respectable place as there are many worse songs than this competing.
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| Pollaponk (Jonatan Gretarsson) |
It takes a lot to make Eurovision fans boo, but the announcement that Russia had qualified on Tuesday managed it. While their entry is weak, the Tolmachevy Sisters wrongly bore the brunt of frustration with Russian policy, both domestic and foreign. Odds of 125/1 tell you all you need to know and how they do in the final will be an interesting sidenote to follow in the voting.
There are two debutants in this year's final, having both been trying for numerous years and failing to qualify. I doubt the entries from Montenegro (200/1) and San Marino (250/1) will be upset by their long odds - qualifying for the first time is an achievement in itself. Both songs are decent and Montenegro will likely do well with traditionalists as it is one of the few entries in a native tongue.
Full odds
Sweden (5/2)
Austria, Netherlands (3/1)
Armenia (11/2)
United Kingdom (9/1)
Hungary (14/1)
Greece (20/1)
Denmark (25/1)
Norway (33/1)
Azerbaijan, Spain (40/1)
Finland (50/1)
Malta, Romania (66/1)
Italy, Poland, Switzerland (80/1)
Iceland (100/1)
Russia (125/1)
France (150/1)
Germany, Montenegro, Slovenia (200/1)
Belarus, San Marino (250/1)
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